Home > Uncategorized > Five thoughts on the Mana outcome

Five thoughts on the Mana outcome

November 23, 2010 Leave a comment Go to comments

I know I promised “last word” on Mana last time, but I guess I was meaning prior to the election.  Also, a couple of people have commented and emailed to the effect that I should post something on the topic in the wash-up.  So here are five quick takeaways.

  1. The result was an okay one for Labour considering the political environment and the relative strength of the National Party candidate and amount of political capital invested by Key.
  2. Despite their astute expectations-setting (thanks largely to David Farrar), the Nats surely gave themselves a chance in Mana, and for good reason.  The 6,000 vote majority talk was always bullshit and, given the likely and eventual turnout, so was 2,500.  1080 or so is below par for Labour, but not by much.  Not a game-changer either way.
  3. Matt McCarten ended up doing about as badly as I thought he would.  This is not an electorate that was ever likely to warm to his political ideology or style.  The McCartenistas who mocked my earlier posts on this subject should feel welcome to say ‘hi’ at any time.
  4. Faafoi bled votes to the Greens, Parata and elsewhere because of his strange and misguided approach to dealing with carpet-bagging allegations.  If he had fronted his outsider status and dealt with it honestly and with humour, it needn’t have hurt him.
  5. The results points to a highly Balkanised electorate — and long-term demographic trends are not favourable to Labour.   Since he is probably looking for houses in the electorate, can I suggest Faafoi takes a good look at Aotea, Papakowhai, Whitby, Paremata, Camborne or Plimmerton?  Just quietly.
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  1. Abe
    November 23, 2010 at 12:55

    You are on the button with suggesting Aotea as where he should live. It represents where the area is going with young middle income families that have done well for themselves moving into their new homes. It captures the aspiration of the area too. Plus Hekia won well in Aotea and if Faafoi does want to make it a safe seat again then he will have to win back votes there – what better way to start than to join that new community?

    But my money will be on him going for a ‘Labour’ area like Titahi Bay – continuing the trend of ghettoising the Labour vote in the poorer areas.

  2. Lynne Renouf
    November 24, 2010 at 07:16

    agree north end is the half Labour shd concentrate on. Time to stop chasing the flakey non enrolled and non voters.

  3. markus
    November 25, 2010 at 03:47

    “The McCartenistas who mocked my earlier posts on this subject should feel welcome to say ‘hi’ at any time.”

    hi.

  4. Francisco Hernandez
    November 25, 2010 at 19:49

    To be honest I don’t think Kris would’ve won if he wasn’t a PI.

    Turnout in Porirua East was a steady 80%. When I did canvassing around that area I was treated like a rockstar. Honest to God, pacific islanders would come up to me to touch the Kris Faafoi shirt I had on. There was even an elderly gentleman who came up to me and kissed me on both cheeks and said “thank you Labour.” About a third of the people claimed to be related to Kris in some way. They said Kris’ name in a vaguely religious way.

    To be honest – I don’t see Josie being treated the same way. He could’ve lost. Kris Faafoi was the only one that stood that could have won the election.

  5. markus
    November 26, 2010 at 02:03

    Yeah, very impressive turnout in Cannons Creek (80% of 2008) and Waitangirua (77%). But, I wouldn’t say “a steady 80%” across Porirua East as a whole, Francisco. Ascot Park (61%) and Porirua East (60%) recorded some of the lowest turnouts in the seat.

    Mind you, it didn’t hurt Labour any:

    …………………..2008 Party-Vote………..2010 By-Election Vote………….Difference

    Ascot Park

    Labour………63………………………………………..71………………………………….+ 8
    National…….21………………………………………..21…………………………………. =
    Green…………4…………………………………………..4…………………………………. =
    Other………..12…………………………………………..4…………………………………- 8

    Porirua East

    Labour……..68…………………………………………..75………………………………..+ 7
    National……15…………………………………………..16………………………………..+ 1
    Green………..5……………………………………………..4………………………………..- 1
    Other………12………………………………………………5………………………………..- 7

    Waitangirua

    Labour……80……………………………………………..85……………………………….+ 5
    National…..9…………………………………………………7………………………………..-2
    Green……..2………………………………………………….2……………………………….. =
    Other……..9…………………………………………………..6………………………………..- 3

    Cannons Creek

    Labour….83…………………………………………………86……………………………….+ 3
    National…6……………………………………………………7………………………………..+ 1
    Green……3……………………………………………………2…………………………………- 1
    Other……9……………………………………………………5………………………………..- 4

  6. markus
    November 26, 2010 at 15:37

    Incidently, what do the above figures tell us about claims from “Samoan community leaders” (loudly broadcast in the media throughout the final weeks of the campaign) that unprecedented Pasifika swings to National were about to take place ?

    The vast majority of Mana’s Pasifika community reside in these four Eastern suburbs. Looks to me as if this wholesale swing proved about as elusive as the one that was supposed to occur in Pasifika South Auckland at the 2008 General Election.

    Will the MSM ever learn ? Probably not. I expect similar shock-horror claims next year.

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