Mana by-election: Last word from me on the matter
OK, here goes:
I think Faafoi will win by around 1000 votes. He could lose, depending on turnout in the East and the Bay, by as many as 500. That’s the range, based on my estimate of turnout and the best I can glean from my sources about how the campaign played out.
McCarten has put out a lot of effective literature, although his stunts have been far from cunning. He will do better than I originally thought, but only marginally: 1K or 1,250 if he has a turnout operation (which I have no way of knowing from here).
Of course, Labour has a secret weapon in Auckland regional organiser, Andrew Beyer, who is on the ground in Mana as we speak, although possibly still in bed.
A holdover from the Nordmeyer era, Beyer is a legend in Labour circles. A giant. An icon.
What kind of legend?
A icon symbolising what exactly?
A giant what?
I couldn’t possibly comment.