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LIVE-BLOGGING MIDTERMS

November 2, 2010 Leave a comment Go to comments

Harry Reid’s unlikely victory is a model for how Obama can win in 2 years.

Jerry Brown elected Governor of California.  Again.  Thirty-five years after he last had the job.  WTF?

Correction…Denver suburbs outstanding so Bennett, the Democrat, now favoured to win Colorado.

Republican Ken Buck — “being gay is like being an alcoholic” — is closing in on Colorado.  The Senate will probably end up 51-49 as I predicted.  My House prediction was low, it will be a pick up for 65ish.  Bad night.  Oldies.

Pat Toomey wins Pennsylvania.  Tough fight from Sestak.  Did well considering.

John Boehner is crying, inviting chants of U.S.A.  Talking about how tough his own life has been. The most selfish tears in political history.

Senate Democratic leader, Harry Reid, looks like he might hold on in the Senate.  According to John Ralston’s tweets.  That is a tough race.

Boehner is like a character from Mad Men. An evil character.

The chain-smoking, orange-tanned John Boehner, set to be the new speaker, is reading a mediocre set of words someone else wrote for him.

Ed Rendell, outgoing (term-limited) Democratic Gov of Pennsylvania, calls for Obama to appoint Colin Powell as chief of staff.  The man who got sideswiped by Washington on Iraq.  The best idea for the new chief of staff is Ed Rendell himself.

20 Blue Dog Democrats have lost (10 held on), this will lead to a significantly more liberal House caucus.

The brilliant Jonathan Chait puts his finger on what caused this rout:

The exit polls from today’s election show how this happened. The non-white share of the electorate fell from 24% in 2008 to 19% in 2010. But the age gap is the real tidal shift. In 2008, Republicans won voters over 65 years old by 8 points, but were crushed among voters under 30 by more than 30 points. The under 30 vote outnumbered the over 65 vote.

In 2010, Democrats still crushed Republicans among the under 30 vote, albeit by just 20 points. But the over 65 vote went Republican by a massive 20 point margin. What’s more, in today’s election, senior citizens constituted more than twice as high a share of the electorate compared to voters under 30. In 2008, the young were 18% of the electorate, and the old were 16% of the electorate. In 2010, the young were 10% of the electorate, and the old were 24% of the electorate.

The proportion of oldies jumped to 24% from 15% in 2008.  That is a devastating number for anyone wanting to extrapolate much from tonight.

Exit poll numbers on economic sentiment are ATROCIOUS.  The GOP should be doing a lot better, esp in the Senate.  In ’94, economic sentiment was a lot brighter but the GOP picked up 54 House seats and eight in the Senate.

Kirk also takes the lead for the GOP in Illinois, Obama’s old seat.

Toomey overtakes Sestak by a handful in PA.

Ohio, Indiana terrible states for the Dems…both went for Obama in ’08.  Ditto Virginia.

Robert Menendez, head of the Democratic Senate campaign, is upbeat about both Illinois and Pennsylvania.  2 point lead to Dem in both.

Nikki Haley is now slightly ahead in South Carolina. NBC called it for her, in fact.

The new Majority Leader, Eric Cantor, is one consonant short of an aunt.

John Hickenlooper holds off the crazy Tom Tancredo by 16 points…much better for Dems than expected.

Deval Patrick holds on to Gov, Massachusetts, by nine points.  Big win.

Joe “You Lie” Wilson is losing with 31 percent in.  Wow.

O’Donnell is asking her opponent to watch her 30 minute advertisment so he can do what’s right in the lameduck session. Huh? He won’t even be in the Senate.  What a moron.  Bizarre speech.

Andrew Cuomo, son of Mario, wins NY Governorship.  He sounds exactly like his Dad — check it out on YouTube.  His Dad should have run for President in 1984 and 88.  The son may be a shot in 2016, but NY state’s finances may not allow him to make much of this job.   Christine O’Donnell speaking now: “we were victorious, the Delaware political system will never be the same. The  Republican Party will never be the same”.  She is totally admitting that her primary mission was factional and losing the actual election doesn’t matter. “This is just the beginning”.  She is a dangerous nutter.

Joe Sestak is holding his own in Pennsylvania against Republican Pat Toomey.  Toomey was looking pretty safe in the late polls.

Marco Rubio, the new Republican Senator in Florida, is a pretty impressive orator.  Complete nutjob but.

Oklahomans vote against Sharia law.  Morons.

Chris Van Hollen, the Democratic head honcho on the House, is strongly disputing network calls for the GOP majority.  Calls NBC prediction (see below) a “mistake”. Watch this space.

Russ Feingold (D-Wisconsin) appears to be closer than expected in his uphill fight.  They are not calling it yet.

Interesting potential upset in South Carolina Gov. race.  Nikki Haley, the Republican, is a Palinite, Indian nationality, bit of a “star”.  May well still win, but closer than expected.

Manchin (D) in West Virginia won by 9 points, Rand Paul (R) by 10 in Kentucky.  Big big wins for both.

Rand Paul is a gigantic arse.  He is linking America’s greatness to his libertarian ideology.  He ought to get pantsed for that, but won’t.

NBC calls the House for Republicans, majority 237-198 +/- 13 odd

Nate Silver:

Although the Democrats are holding their own in Kentucky and — in very early vote-counting, North Carolina — their poor results so far in Indiana,Virginia and Florida have our House forecast moving toward the G.O.P. It now sees a 57-seat gain for the Republicans and Democratic chances of holding onto the House are down to 12 percent from 16 percent.

Chris Coons beats Christine O’Donnell (witch) in Delaware Senate.  Then the Dems pick up the seat vacated by Mike Castle, the highly electable Republican that O’Donnell beat in the primary.  What a fucking disaster that woman has been for them.

Pennsylvania/Illinois too close to call.  Connecticut too early to call, but Blumenthal ahead,

OK, here is the overall picture — Dems do indeed appear to be stuggling in the House, but not as bad as feared.  Indiana worse than Kentucky.

A couple of touch-and-go districts in Kentucky (3&6) appear to be staying Dem.  Not apocalypse? asks Nate Silver

Ohio governor’s race too close to call, but Dems think their candidate, incumbent Ted Strickland, might hold on.  That would suggest, again, less than a tsunami.

Joe Manchin looks likely to win West Virginia Senate spot, although too early to call.

Coats wins Indiana, Portman Ohio, two GOP Senate pick-ups.

Chandler ahead in KY-6 by six points with 22% reporting, suggests that the huge 70 seat landslide is not on.

Here’s the alleged word from GOP pollster Frank Luntz on key races:

On a conference call with associates from K Street, Luntz said that he believed Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would win reelection. According to a source privy to the call, here are the GOP pollster’s other predictions:

Kentucky – Republican Rand Paul wins the Senate race.
Florida – Republican Marco Rubio wins the Senate seat by a landslide.
West Virginia – Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin wins the Senate race.
Connecticut – Democrat Richard Blumenthal wins the Senate race.
Illinois – Republican Mark Kirk wins his bid for Senate.
Missouri – Republican Roy Blunt wins the Senate seat.
Pennsylvania – Republican Pat Toomey wins the Senate seat.
Colorado – Too close to call.
Wisconsin – Close, but Republican Ron Johnson wins the Senate seat.
California – Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer wins reelection, former Gov. Jerry Brown wins the governorship
Washington – Democratic Sen. Patty Murray wins reelection.
Ohio – Close, but Republican John Kasich wins the governorship.
Nevada – Sen. Harry Reid wins reelection.
Michigan – Republican Rick Snyder wins the governorship.

Rand Paul wins Nevada.

Turnout in Nevada’s heavily Democratic district, Clark, looks down — bad news.

Chris Van Hollen, head of the Dem Congressional Campaign C’tee, is claiming a big Dem turnout, but the boothes are still open in most places so he is probably blowing this through his arse.

GRAIN OF SALT ALERT!!

Here are the leaked Senate exit polls doing the rounds (circa HuffPo):

Blumenthal (D-CT) +8
Rubio (R-FL) +21
Blunt (R-MO) +10
Boxer (D-CA) +8
Kirk (R-IL) +6
Paul (R-KY) +11,
NV–EVEN
Bennet (D-CO) +2
Toomey (R-PA) +4
Murray (D-WA) +6
Manchin (D-WV) +7
Johnson (R-WI) +5

MSNBC exit poll gives Obama 45 percent favourable, which is a little higher than Gallup predicted (40 percent) so that is one datapoint worth nothing.  Early Kentucky/Indiana returns not overly predictive.  No other states have finished voting yet.

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