Four reasons McCarten will flop in Mana
Matt McCarten has a trigger-happy band of loyalists, that’s for sure. Here is the latest:
What do you base your analysis on? An informed and sophisticated voter base?
McCarten has the charisma and the contacts to enthuse a large activist set.
Your first point is flat wrong. McCarten has excellent name recognition. There will be many voters who mark his name simply because they have heard of him.
Your second point is BS. Plenty of people on the right respect him and would vote for him to slap Labour.
Your third point is based on no empirical evidence from a similar situation. And your fourth is equally misguided. McCarten had no more to do with Hobbiton than Goff did. People are as likely to associate Labour as they are with the unions.
You seem to be suffering from the common delusion that Mana is somehow special and different from elsewhere. It is not. If you want to put some money on it let me know.
I can see him taking the seat with a combination of strong on the ground campaigning and voters quite happy to give Labour the slap they deserve by going further left.
Harsh, although nothing compared to the never-to-be-published sledging I copped after my Faafoi posts. I still blush. Is it just me, or is there a tiny bit of Manson Family in all this McCarten arm-flapping. Or maybe I was in the bathroom (or, more likely, drunk — or both) when New Zealand fell head over heels with Matt McCarten including conservatives whom sagenz appears to believe will vote for MM as a way of punishing Labour when conservatives who don’t like Labour usually…I don’t know… VOTE NATIONAL. Anyway my response to all this is available under comments if you’re interested.
UPDATE: Just read this on Kiwiblog. Wow. I am having trouble recalling when I last read anything this completely wrong. It is borderline hysteria. I can only assume that Mr. Edwards has never once set foot in the Mana electorate or met anyone from the electorate, even in a passing fashion. This paragraph made me wince:
McCarten will have a huge support infrastructure that he can tap into. There’s a number of left intellectuals like Laila Harre, Chris Trotter, Marty ‘Bomber’ Bradbury, John Minto, Mike Lee, Cathy Casey, etc, who might be expected to help rally the troops and design a leftwing political platform that will resonate with Mana voters. Maybe even some more Labour/Green partisans like Andrew Campbell and Sue Bradford might also pitch in.
Oh dear. The only way any of these characters can deliver votes in Mana is if they live in Mana. Otherwise, their support makes McCarten’s defeat even more inevitable. This is predominantly middle-class seat with large pockets of Maori and Pacific voters in the east and west. And Edwards is saying that John Minto can deliver these voters? The Chris Kuggeleijn of the NZ Left? But check this out for political happy-clapping:
McCarten’s campaign has much wider political ramifications – for example, it could be the launching pad for a new party to fill the gaping big hole on the left of the political spectrum in New Zealand.
Is this satire? If so, it’s hilarious.
Original post follows.
If Matt McCarten gets more than 400 votes in the Mana by-election, I will be surprised. Here’s four reasons why:
- No-one really knows who he is. His celebrity is worth as many votes as Faafoi’s: zero.
- McCarten’s people are hard-left union (Pakeha) households and urbane (Pakeha) Trots, and neither group really exists in Mana, except for a few disgruntled Marxists in Titahi Bay and about a dozen in Ranui Heights, Cannons Creek and Ascot Park.
- Left-wing protest candidates do better when Labour is in power.
- Running with explicit trade union backing at this moment, given Survivor: Hobbiton, is like running for Governor of Michigan on a Goldman Sachs’ ticket.
The only reason he may reach 400 votes is that McCarten may attract the stray redneck who would rather not back a Faafoi or Parata. More likely 200-300.