The Woodstock and Cola Crowd will Crown Abbott
I am not a betting man, except for that time I put $500 on a greyhound because it had the word “kiwi” in its name and I was on the tail-end of a decade-long bender. Like Karaoke and public urination, gambling is just not something I imagine doing sober.
But, were I so inclined, I would go large on the Coalition to win tomorrow. They are currently paying $3.40, a slight shortening since yesterday. Still great odds.
Abbott has at least an even chance in my estimation. He has run a disciplined campaign full of effective lies and hyperbole.
The debt and deficits fear-mongering is laughable bullshit — Australia’s debt to GDP ratio is so healthy it could bench-press Tasmania — but it works. “Australia is borrowing $100 million every day” is a killer line. After spreading such mischievous nonsense, Andrew Robb, the usually sensible Coalition finance spokesman, must spend half an hour dry-retching each night before the sedatives kick in.
The “stop-the-boats” trope is a vote-winner too, especially in an election where both parties are chasing the sort of undecided voter — known fondly as the “cashed-up bogan” — whose economic ignorance is matched only by his enthusiastic racism.
Contrary to mythology, the “swinging voter” is not a thoughtful, contemplative soul who carefully weighs pros and cons before casting his vote. He is a short-tempered tradesman with a penchant for mixed spirits and internet porn. He thinks about politics for around 30 seconds a week. His political opinions are recycled garbage, but what does he care? He has a wife and kids, and a humungous mortgage that, in relative terms, makes a mockery of the so-called national debt. This is the battleground tomorrow. It is these hearts and minds in play.
Add to that, voters in New South Wales and Queensland would rather live under the Taliban than their current state Labor governments. Conditions are ripe for an upset, which is upsetting.
Of course, I will be voting Labor, which I would do even if Julia Gillard took time out of her busy campaign schedule to pooh in my bed.